Motagua 2-1 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF - Central Amerika Cup, 6 Aug 2025

📅06/08/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 28%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.87/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.72
+55% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +35%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
16.0 Crosses 19.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Independiente
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.28 xG 1.41
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
356 Passes 218
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
04.10.2023 Independiente Independiente 2-0 HT 2-0 Motagua Motagua CONOAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motagua
2-1
AWAY Independiente
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua squeezed past Independiente 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Motagua had 47% of the ball to Independiente's 53%, shots finished 10-12.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Independiente?

Motagua 2-1 Independiente in the CONCACAF - Central Amerika Cup on 06/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Motagua 47%, draw 28%, Independiente 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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