BG Pathum United 2-1 Kaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFCŞL2, 6 Nov 2025

BG Pathum United
2-1 HT 2-1
Kaya
📅06/11/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
AFCŞL2 – 2025/2026

BG Pathum United vs Kaya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
75%
1.18
Draw
15%
5.71
Away
10%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.74
Over 2.5
49%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.92
2-3 Goals
43%
2.05
4-5 Goals
21%
2.44
6+ Goals
8%
5.11
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.92 — our 28% vs market 11.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
23%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
75%
Home Win
80%
-4.5pp
15%
Draw
14%
+1.2pp
10%
Away Win
6%
+3.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
33%
+18.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
67%
-18.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.0pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

BG Pathum United v Kaya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaya EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +11%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
455 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
– Crosses 8.6
– Yellow Cards 1.9

BG Pathum United vs Kaya Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Kaya
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.97 xG 0.28
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
511 Passes 244
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 4
27 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
23.10.2025 Kaya Kaya 0-2 HT 0-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United AFCŞL2
08.07.2021 Kaya Kaya 0-1 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United AŞMP
26.06.2021 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 4-1 HT 2-0 Kaya Kaya AŞMP
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Kaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United edged past Kaya 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had BG Pathum United as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for BG Pathum United and 0.33 for Kaya.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Kaya?

BG Pathum United 2-1 Kaya in the AFCŞL2 on 06/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Kaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 75%, draw 15%, Kaya 10%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BG Pathum United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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