07/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-2
Castellanzese vs Real Calepina Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
Over
51%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
No
45%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
39%
4-5
26%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
39%
Home Win
29%
28%
Draw
28%
33%
Away Win
43%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Castellanzese v Real Calepina — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Castellanzese
The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY
Real Calepina
The Market 48%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+44% /
+44%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+6%
/
–
48%
Ball Possession
52%
12
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
5
299 · 75%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
409 · 81%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Castellanzese vs Real Calepina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Castellanzese squeezed past Real Calepina 2-1.
Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Castellanzese found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Castellanzese vs Real Calepina?
Castellanzese 2-1 Real Calepina in the Italy - Serie D on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Castellanzese vs Real Calepina?
Before kick-off our model rated a Castellanzese win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Castellanzese 39%, draw 28%, Real Calepina 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Castellanzese), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Castellanzese)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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İTD
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7 Jan 2024