07/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-0
Montebelluna vs Mestre Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
Over
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
41%
4-5
21%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
42%
Home Win
52%
31%
Draw
25%
27%
Away Win
24%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Montebelluna v Mestre — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Montebelluna
The Market 56%
Head to Head
AWAY
Mestre
The Market 27%
+36% /
+36%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-34% /
-34%
2.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.00/1.00
+62%
/
-7%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
+20%
50%
Ball Possession
50%
14
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
4
297 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
348 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Montebelluna vs Mestre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Montebelluna squeezed past Mestre 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Montebelluna as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
What was the final score of Montebelluna vs Mestre?
Montebelluna 1-0 Mestre in the Italy - Serie D on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Montebelluna vs Mestre?
Before kick-off our model rated a Montebelluna win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Montebelluna 42%, draw 31%, Mestre 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Montebelluna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Montebelluna)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
7 Jan 2024