Western United 1-2 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 7 Jan 2024

Western United
1-2 HT 1-0
Melbourne City
📅07/01/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Western United vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
45%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
6.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.64
1/2 EV+ ✓
8%
20.55
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
12%
8.61
X/2
22%
4.51
X/X
8%
5.87
2/1
6%
35.5
2/2
15%
2.3
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.55 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
45%
Away Win
52%
-6.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.1pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Western United v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 56%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.26/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/1.45
-7% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -19%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 446 · 84%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.5
19.2 Crosses 17.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Western United vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.97 xG 1.72
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
303 Passes 497
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-2 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS
22.04.2023 Western United Western United 1-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
07.01.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-0 HT 3-0 Western United Western United AVUS
07.10.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
28.05.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-2 HT 0-2 Western United Western United AVUS
12.03.2022 Western United Western United 2-2 HT 2-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS

Western United 1-2 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United
1-2
AWAY Melbourne City
1.49 xG 0.90
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
374 Passes 446
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Western United vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City squeezed past Western United 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Western United had 45% of the ball to Melbourne City's 55%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.49 to 0.90 — on chances, Western United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Western United and 2.00 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Western United vs Melbourne City?

Western United 1-2 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Western United 31%, draw 24%, Melbourne City 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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