Atletico Madrid 0-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 7 Feb 2024

Atletico Madrid
0-1 HT 0-1
Athletic Bilbao
📅07/02/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Copa del Rey – 2023/2024

Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
19.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.54
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.08
X/2
11%
7.81
X/X
15%
4.27
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
13%
6.31
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-9.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+8.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 27%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
2.86/0.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.99
+101% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
395 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
54.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
22.0 Crosses 15.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.74 xG 1.30
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
424 Passes 338
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
19.02.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
15.10.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
30.04.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
13.01.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-2 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSSK
18.09.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1

Atletico Madrid 0-1 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
0-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.64 xG 1.38
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
574 Passes 229
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
36 Box Touches 12
33 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao squeezed past Atletico Madrid 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Athletic Bilbao found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 68% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 32%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.64 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.00 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?

Atletico Madrid 0-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 40%, draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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