Mainz 05 1-1 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 7 Feb 2024

Mainz 05
1-1 HT 1-1
Union Berlin
📅07/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.57
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.47
6+ Goals
10%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.82
1/2
10%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
15%
4.23
X/2
8%
6.96
X/X
16%
4.03
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
8%
5.65
2/X
10%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.9pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.1pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -7%
1.45/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.45
-25% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
21.5 Crosses 19.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Union Berlin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.41 xG 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
302 Passes 302
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-1 HT 2-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
04.02.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
14.08.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
26.02.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
03.10.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
06.02.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1

Mainz 05 1-1 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
1-1
AWAY Union Berlin
1.35 xG 1.04
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
163 Passes 225
58% Pass Accuracy 63%
22 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 and Union Berlin shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 45% of the ball to Union Berlin's 55%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 1.35 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.83 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?

Mainz 05 1-1 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 42%, draw 32%, Union Berlin 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mainz 05) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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