CA Sarmiento vs Defensa y Justicia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
CA Sarmiento v Defensa y Justicia — Team-Based Signals
CA Sarmiento vs Defensa y Justicia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
CA Sarmiento 2-3 Defensa y Justicia — Actual Match Statistics
Defensa y Justicia squeezed past CA Sarmiento 3-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Defensa y Justicia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, CA Sarmiento had 43% of the ball to Defensa y Justicia's 57%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.92 to 0.62.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Sarmiento had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for CA Sarmiento and 1.67 for Defensa y Justicia.
What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs Defensa y Justicia?
CA Sarmiento 2-3 Defensa y Justicia in the Argentina - Premier League on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs Defensa y Justicia?
Before kick-off our model rated a CA Sarmiento win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 38%, draw 32%, Defensa y Justicia 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.