NorthEast United 0-1 Punjab FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — India - Super League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 30% vs market 21.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
23%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.9pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.6pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NorthEast United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Punjab FC EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-13% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.3 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NorthEast United
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Punjab FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.33 xG 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
224 Passes 302
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.10.2023 Punjab FC Punjab FC 1-1 HT 0-1 NorthEast United NorthEast United HİNSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NorthEast United
0-1
AWAY Punjab FC
0.52 xG 1.26
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
303 Passes 297
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NorthEast United vs Punjab FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Punjab FC squeezed past NorthEast United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was NorthEast United at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, NorthEast United had 52% of the ball to Punjab FC's 48%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.52 to 1.26.

What was the final score of NorthEast United vs Punjab FC?

NorthEast United 0-1 Punjab FC in the India - Super League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NorthEast United vs Punjab FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a NorthEast United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split NorthEast United 44%, draw 24%, Punjab FC 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (NorthEast United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NorthEast United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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