Fransa (K) 4-1 Polonya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Women's World Cup, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒23:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
76%
1.18
Draw
16%
6.26
Away
8%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.59
Over 2.5
46%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.27
No
54%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.24
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals
27%
2.51
6+ Goals
9%
5.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.24 — our 27% vs market 13.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1/2
2%
1/X
3%
X/1
23%
X/2
3%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
3%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
77%
Home Win
80%
-3.7pp
16%
Draw
13%
+2.6pp
8%
Away Win
7%
+1.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
35%
+19.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
65%
-19.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.5pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fransa (K) EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonya (K) EU Bookmakers 9%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.02/0.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/2.63
-47% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +112% / +55%
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
458 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 190 · 69%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
30.6 Crosses 13.0
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fransa (K)
4-1
AWAY Polonya (K)
5.15 xG 0.56
71% Ball Possession 29%
25 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 2
428 Passes 119
86% Pass Accuracy 58%
52 Box Touches 7
24 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fransa (K) vs Polonya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fransa (K) ran out comfortable winners over Polonya (K) 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fransa (K) as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Fransa (K) had 71% of the ball to Polonya (K)'s 29%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 5.15 to 0.56.

What was the final score of Fransa (K) vs Polonya (K)?

Fransa (K) 4-1 Polonya (K) in the Women's World Cup on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fransa (K) vs Polonya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fransa (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Fransa (K) 77%, draw 16%, Polonya (K) 8%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fransa (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fransa (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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