Rot-Weiss Essen 4-1 MSV Duisburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 7 Apr 2024

Rot-Weiss Essen
4-1 HT 1-1
MSV Duisburg
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Rot-Weiss Essen vs MSV Duisburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.1
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
9.78
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 25% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.75
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
18%
4.74
X/2
7%
7.08
X/X
16%
5.23
2/1
12%
23.15
2/2
11%
4.8
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+0.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
25%
Away Win
29%
-4.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rot-Weiss Essen v MSV Duisburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.44/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.52
-10% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
– Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0

Rot-Weiss Essen vs MSV Duisburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY MSV Duisburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
28.10.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 1-2 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
05.02.2023 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-1 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
05.08.2022 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
20.05.2007 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 3-0 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL2
17.12.2006 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-2 HT 1-1 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2
13.02.2005 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-0 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL2

Rot-Weiss Essen 4-1 MSV Duisburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
4-1
AWAY MSV Duisburg
54% Ball Possession 46%
22 Total Shots 15
10 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Essen vs MSV Duisburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rot-Weiss Essen cruised past MSV Duisburg 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rot-Weiss Essen as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Rot-Weiss Essen had 54% of the ball to MSV Duisburg's 46%, shots finished 22-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.50 for MSV Duisburg.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Essen vs MSV Duisburg?

Rot-Weiss Essen 4-1 MSV Duisburg in the Germany - 3rd Division on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Essen vs MSV Duisburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rot-Weiss Essen win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Essen 47%, draw 28%, MSV Duisburg 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen) ✗ BTTS No
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