Tallinna Kalev 3-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 7 Apr 2024

Tallinna Kalev
3-1 HT 1-0
Parnu JK Vaprus
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Estonia - Premium League – 2024

Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.9pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.5pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tallinna Kalev v Parnu JK Vaprus — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 32%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.16/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.03
-19% / +131% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +37%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
4.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
22.07.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
13.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-2 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
02.04.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-2 HT 0-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
01.10.2022 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
26.08.2022 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-3 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1

Tallinna Kalev 3-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
3-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tallinna Kalev beat Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Tallinna Kalev made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 49% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 51%, shots finished 11-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tallinna Kalev had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 0.50 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Tallinna Kalev 3-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tallinna Kalev win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 39%, draw 29%, Parnu JK Vaprus 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tallinna Kalev), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tallinna Kalev) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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