Al Gharafa 1-1 Umm Salal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.67
2-3 Goals
37%
2.03
4-5 Goals
27%
2.62
6+ Goals
14%
6.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
62%
-6.2pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.8pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+4.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.04/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/2.60
+6% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
452 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 69%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
12.5 Crosses 13.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Gharafa
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Umm Salal
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.26 xG 0.38
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
365 Passes 270
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
35 Box Touches 10
31 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
17.03.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
06.09.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 2-2 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
18.01.2022 Umm Salal Umm Salal 3-1 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
27.09.2021 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-0 HT 0-0 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
10.04.2021 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-5 HT 1-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa KAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Gharafa
1-1
AWAY Umm Salal
0.97 xG 0.97
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
423 Passes 159
82% Pass Accuracy 64%
28 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Gharafa and Umm Salal couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Al Gharafa carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Gharafa had 67% of the ball to Umm Salal's 33%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.97 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Gharafa had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Al Gharafa and 1.33 for Umm Salal.

What was the final score of Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal?

Al Gharafa 1-1 Umm Salal in the Qatar League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Gharafa vs Umm Salal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Gharafa win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Al Gharafa 56%, draw 22%, Umm Salal 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Gharafa), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Gharafa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KAT More Qatar League
7 Apr 2024
21:30 Al Rayyan vs Al Muaidar Analysis →