Alianza Universidad 0-2 Comerciantes Unidos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 7 Apr 2025

📅07/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-11.6pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.5pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Universidad EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.37/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.45/2.55
-14% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +126% / -43%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
Crosses 6.0
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Universidad
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
04.09.2022 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 3-1 HT 2-0 Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad PERU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Universidad
0-2
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
1.35 xG 1.32
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
336 Passes 214
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alianza Universidad vs Comerciantes Unidos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Comerciantes Unidos got the better of Alianza Universidad 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Universidad at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Alianza Universidad had 58% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 42%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.35 to 1.32.

What was the final score of Alianza Universidad vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Alianza Universidad 0-2 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Universidad vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Universidad win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Alianza Universidad 45%, draw 30%, Comerciantes Unidos 25%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alianza Universidad), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Universidad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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