BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Ogre United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 7 Apr 2026

BFC Daugavpils
2-1 HT 2-0
Ogre United
📅07/04/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Latvia - Virsliga – 2026

BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-0.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

BFC Daugavpils v Ogre United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ogre United EU Bookmakers 22%
+13% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+64% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.6 Crosses –
2.6 Yellow Cards –

BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Ogre United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2-1
AWAY Ogre United
2.12 xG 1.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 15
11 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
250 Passes 245
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils squeezed past Ogre United 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 53% of the ball to Ogre United's 47%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 2.12 to 1.91.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?

BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Ogre United in the Latvia - Virsliga on 07/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 56%, draw 22%, Ogre United 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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