Athletic Club 0-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 7 May 2025

Athletic Club
0-1 HT 0-0
Vila Nova
📅07/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2025

Athletic Club vs Vila Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.46
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
29%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.03
No
61%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.24
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
4.99
6+ Goals
7%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
37%
+6.8pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.1pp
29%
Away Win
32%
-3.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
-6.0pp
61%
BTTS No
55%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Club v Vila Nova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Club EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -19%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
– Crosses 16.4
– Yellow Cards 2.8

Athletic Club 0-1 Vila Nova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Club
0-1
AWAY Vila Nova
1.20 xG 0.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
277 Passes 305
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Athletic Club vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova nicked a narrow win over Athletic Club 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Athletic Club at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Athletic Club had 50% of the ball to Vila Nova's 50%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.20 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?

Athletic Club 0-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 07/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Club vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Club win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Athletic Club 44%, draw 27%, Vila Nova 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Athletic Club) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Club) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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