Super Nova 2-3 Smiltene — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 7 Jul 2024

Super Nova
2-3
Smiltene
📅07/07/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2024

Super Nova vs Smiltene Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.18
Draw
25%
6.26
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.98
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
6%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
80%
-19.4pp
26%
Draw
13%
+12.5pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.3pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Super Nova v Smiltene — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Super Nova EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Smiltene EU Bookmakers 9%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
4.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/3.66
+40% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -27%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
479 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Super Nova vs Smiltene
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smiltene nicked a narrow win over Super Nova 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Super Nova at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

What was the final score of Super Nova vs Smiltene?

Super Nova 2-3 Smiltene in the Latvia - 1st Division on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Super Nova vs Smiltene?

Before kick-off our model rated a Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Super Nova 61%, draw 26%, Smiltene 14%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Super Nova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Super Nova) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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