San Lorenzo 1-3 Velez Sarsfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Cup, 7 Aug 2024

📅07/08/2024 · 🕒03:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.17
Draw
30%
2.7
Away
32%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.36
Over 2.5
38%
2.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.91
4-5 Goals
15%
7.85
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
23%
5.48
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.7
X/1
11%
6.17
X/2
18%
4.61
X/X
12%
2.98
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
7%
3.64
2/X
12%
15.25
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.48 — our 23% vs market 13.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
28%
+9.8pp
30%
Draw
34%
-3.4pp
32%
Away Win
38%
-6.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
70%
-8.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
30%
+8.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.4pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 42%
-47% / -47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.67/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/2.10
-100% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
256 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 72%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
37.0 Crosses 22.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Lorenzo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.01 xG 0.72
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
236 Passes 364
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
29.04.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
08.10.2022 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
08.11.2021 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-1 HT 2-1 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
09.02.2020 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-0 HT 1-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
13.11.2018 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
17.04.2018 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-2 HT 1-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Lorenzo
1-3
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.43 xG 1.99
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
244 Passes 212
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
11 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield saw off San Lorenzo 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Velez Sarsfield made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, San Lorenzo had 54% of the ball to Velez Sarsfield's 46%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.43 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Lorenzo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.67 for Velez Sarsfield.

What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?

San Lorenzo 1-3 Velez Sarsfield in the Argentina - Cup on 07/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 38%, draw 30%, Velez Sarsfield 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (San Lorenzo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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