Ceara 3-1 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 7 Aug 2024

📅07/08/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
Over 2.5
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.29
No
58%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.71
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
60%
-7.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+5.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.5pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.41/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.27
+7% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
358 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.9 Crosses 17.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Guarani FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.23 xG 1.07
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
372 Passes 256
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
03.08.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
23.04.2023 Ceara Ceara 0-3 HT 0-2 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
08.11.2017 Ceara Ceara 2-2 HT 1-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
19.07.2017 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-2 HT 2-1 Ceara Ceara BR2
08.09.2012 Ceara Ceara 1-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
02.06.2012 Guarani FC Guarani FC 4-1 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
3-1
AWAY Guarani FC
0.45 xG 1.06
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
265 Passes 325
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara beat Guarani FC 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ceara as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ceara had 46% of the ball to Guarani FC's 54%, shots finished 8-5, expected goals 0.45 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guarani FC.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guarani FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ceara and 1.83 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Guarani FC?

Ceara 3-1 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 07/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Ceara 52%, draw 27%, Guarani FC 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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