Hamburg 3-2 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 7 Dec 2025

Hamburg
3-2 HT 0-1
Werder Bremen
📅07/12/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Hamburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.33
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
15%
5.63
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.51
X/X
12%
5.0
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
7%
4.19
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · X/2 at 6.51 — our 18% vs market 11.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+3.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.6pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 37%
-10% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.60/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/1.59
-65% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -17%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 75%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
23.9 Crosses 18.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Hamburg vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.51 xG 1.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
319 Passes 292
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.02.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 2-3 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
18.09.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-2 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
24.02.2018 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-0 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
30.09.2017 Hamburg Hamburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
16.04.2017 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-1 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
26.11.2016 Hamburg Hamburg 2-2 HT 2-2 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1

Hamburg 3-2 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
3-2
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.31 xG 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
399 Passes 315
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg squeezed past Werder Bremen 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hamburg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hamburg had 54% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 46%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.31 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hamburg and 1.33 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Werder Bremen?

Hamburg 3-2 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 44%, draw 25%, Werder Bremen 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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