Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 8 Jan 2024

Adelaide United
1-1 HT 1-1
Macarthur
📅08/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.94
Over 2.5
64%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.39
No
43%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
8.03
2-3 Goals
32%
2.29
4-5 Goals
31%
2.34
6+ Goals
17%
4.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.88
1/2
5%
39.0
1/X
8%
14.65
X/1
13%
4.34
X/2
5%
11.2
X/X
8%
7.79
2/1
7%
17.35
2/2
14%
6.73
2/X
5%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-4.7pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.0pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
22%
+14.2pp
64%
Over 2.5
78%
-14.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.6pp
43%
BTTS No
32%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 24%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +0%
1.63/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.94
-44% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
405 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
26.4 Crosses 18.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9

Adelaide United vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Macarthur
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.76 xG 1.82
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
338 Passes 291
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 30
22 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.12.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 4-3 HT 2-2 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
20.01.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-0 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
16.10.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-0 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
08.04.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-0 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
19.02.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 4-1 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
14.04.2021 Adelaide United Adelaide United 3-1 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
1-1
AWAY Macarthur
1.55 xG 1.96
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
443 Passes 346
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
39 Box Touches 22
33 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United and Macarthur shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

This one beat our numbers. Adelaide United carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Adelaide United had 56% of the ball to Macarthur's 44%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.55 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Adelaide United and 1.83 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Macarthur?

Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 08/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 55%, draw 21%, Macarthur 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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