Moreirense 1-4 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 8 Jan 2024

Moreirense
1-4 HT 1-3
Casa Pia
📅08/01/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Moreirense vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.8
Draw
36%
3.18
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.64
Over 2.5
37%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
16%
4.42
6+ Goals
8%
23.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 34% vs market 31.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.37
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
14.2
X/1
18%
3.99
X/2
9%
9.16
X/X
21%
4.03
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
10%
7.72
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
52%
-12.1pp
36%
Draw
28%
+7.6pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.7pp
37%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Moreirense v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 23%
+7% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.49/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.11
+22% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +39%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
22.7 Crosses 22.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9

Moreirense 1-4 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
1-4
AWAY Casa Pia
1.22 xG 1.35
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
415 Passes 259
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia swept aside Moreirense 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 36% / 25% — and on the day Casa Pia made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Moreirense had 60% of the ball to Casa Pia's 40%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.22 to 1.35.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Casa Pia?

Moreirense 1-4 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 40%, draw 36%, Casa Pia 25%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Moreirense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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