South Melbourne 1-0 Melbourne Knights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 8 Feb 2024

South Melbourne
1-0 HT 1-0
Melbourne Knights
📅08/02/2024 · 🕒12:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - National Premier League – 2024

South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.4pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

South Melbourne v Melbourne Knights — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Knights EU Bookmakers 38%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +16%
1.90/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.34/1.61
+13% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
256 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 69%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.2 Crosses 15.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.4

South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Knights
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
252 Passes 306
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.06.2023 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 1-2 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
06.03.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
03.06.2022 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 2-1 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
04.03.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-0 HT 1-0 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
07.05.2021 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights 1-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
11.04.2015 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne Knights Melbourne Knights AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne edged past Melbourne Knights 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for South Melbourne and 1.00 for Melbourne Knights.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights?

South Melbourne 1-0 Melbourne Knights in the Australia - National Premier League on 08/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 41%, draw 24%, Melbourne Knights 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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