Estrela Do Norte 0-1 Rio Branco ES — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 8 Feb 2024

📅08/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
16%
3.8
Away
28%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
55%
Over
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
No Pick
69%
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2-3
40%
4-5
14%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
26%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 69%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
56%
Home Win
63%
-6.7pp
16%
Draw
23%
-7.1pp
28%
Away Win
15%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela Do Norte The Market 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Branco ES The Market 18%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
417 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela Do Norte
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Rio Branco ES
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
70% Ball Possession 30%
14 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.02.2023 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES 2-1 HT 1-0 Estrela Do Norte BRCAP
30.01.2022 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES 0-2 Estrela Do Norte BRCAP
01.05.2021 Estrela Do Norte 0-1 HT 0-0 Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES BRCAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela Do Norte
0-1
AWAY Rio Branco ES
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Estrela Do Norte vs Rio Branco ES
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Branco ES edged past Estrela Do Norte 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Estrela Do Norte at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (69%) came in.

On the day, Estrela Do Norte had 48% of the ball to Rio Branco ES's 52%, shots finished 18-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rio Branco ES led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estrela Do Norte and 1.00 for Rio Branco ES.

What was the final score of Estrela Do Norte vs Rio Branco ES?

Estrela Do Norte 0-1 Rio Branco ES in the Brazil - Capixaba on 08/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela Do Norte vs Rio Branco ES?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela Do Norte win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Estrela Do Norte 56%, draw 16%, Rio Branco ES 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Estrela Do Norte) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estrela Do Norte) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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