4 De Julho 3-2 Picos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Piauiense, 8 Feb 2024

📅08/02/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.25
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
22%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
Over Pick
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
39%
4-5
29%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
27%
X/2
4%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
58%
Home Win
76%
-17.4pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.3pp
22%
Away Win
8%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME 4 De Julho The Market 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Picos The Market 11%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
2.17/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+23% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +69%
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
446 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME 4 De Julho
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Picos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
12.05.2021 Picos Picos 0-1 HT 0-0 4 De Julho 4 De Julho BRPI
28.04.2021 4 De Julho 4 De Julho 1-1 HT 1-1 Picos Picos BRPI
POST-MATCH 4 De Julho vs Picos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

4 De Julho squeezed past Picos 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had 4 De Julho as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, 4 De Julho had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for 4 De Julho and 0.50 for Picos.

What was the final score of 4 De Julho vs Picos?

4 De Julho 3-2 Picos in the Brazil - Piauiense on 08/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for 4 De Julho vs Picos?

Before kick-off our model rated a 4 De Julho win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split 4 De Julho 58%, draw 20%, Picos 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (4 De Julho), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (4 De Julho) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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