Pachuca 3-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 8 Feb 2024

Pachuca
3-2 HT 1-2
Leon
📅08/02/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.02
6+ Goals
13%
9.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.2pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -9%
1.51/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.19
+18% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
18.7 Crosses 15.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Leon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 1.04
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
280 Passes 341
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.07.2023 Leon Leon 4-0 HT 3-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
05.02.2023 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
22.08.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
23.01.2022 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
25.07.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 4-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
19.01.2021 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
3-2
AWAY Leon
0.94 xG 1.06
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
358 Passes 260
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca edged past Leon 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pachuca had 55% of the ball to Leon's 45%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.94 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pachuca and 1.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Leon?

Pachuca 3-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 08/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 43%, draw 23%, Leon 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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