Mechelen 3-1 Westerlo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 8 Mar 2024

Mechelen
3-1 HT 2-0
Westerlo
📅08/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Mechelen vs Westerlo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.57
6+ Goals
11%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 26% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.85
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
19%
4.6
X/2
13%
6.93
X/X
14%
4.66
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
5.06
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.0pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mechelen v Westerlo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mechelen EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Westerlo EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +23%
1.41/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.12
-4% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +40%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.2 Crosses 13.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Mechelen vs Westerlo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mechelen
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Westerlo
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.08 xG 2.02
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
409 Passes 392
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 2-3 HT 2-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
28.01.2023 Westerlo Westerlo 2-0 HT 1-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
21.08.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 5-4 HT 1-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
16.07.2017 Westerlo Westerlo 0-6 HT 0-5 Mechelen Mechelen HAZ
22.01.2017 Mechelen Mechelen 1-2 HT 1-1 Westerlo Westerlo BEL
27.08.2016 Westerlo Westerlo 1-2 HT 1-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL

Mechelen 3-1 Westerlo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mechelen
3-1
AWAY Westerlo
2.52 xG 2.06
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
337 Passes 497
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mechelen vs Westerlo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen beat Westerlo 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mechelen as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mechelen had 42% of the ball to Westerlo's 58%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 2.52 to 2.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mechelen had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Mechelen and 1.83 for Westerlo.

What was the final score of Mechelen vs Westerlo?

Mechelen 3-1 Westerlo in the Belgium - Pro League on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mechelen vs Westerlo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mechelen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mechelen 42%, draw 28%, Westerlo 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mechelen), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mechelen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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