Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1-2 El Gounah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.62
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 36% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.2pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.3pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baladiyyat Al Mehalla EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY El Gounah EU Bookmakers 39%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -11%
0.80/2.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.38
+6% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -38%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
270 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 73%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
12.9 Crosses 21.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
1-2
AWAY El Gounah
0.92 xG 1.92
63% Ball Possession 37%
7 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
341 Passes 178
73% Pass Accuracy 64%
15 Box Touches 7
22 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs El Gounah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Gounah squeezed past Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day El Gounah made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla had 63% of the ball to El Gounah's 37%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.92 to 1.92.

What was the final score of Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs El Gounah?

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1-2 El Gounah in the Egypt - Premier League on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs El Gounah?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baladiyyat Al Mehalla win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 37%, draw 29%, El Gounah 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Baladiyyat Al Mehalla) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →