Uniao De Leiria 1-0 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 8 Mar 2024

📅08/03/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.72
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.52
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 30% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-12.4pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 24%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.68/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.70
+15% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.2 Crosses 16.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1W-0D-0L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.05 xG 0.76
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
242 Passes 336
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-4 HT 0-2 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-0
AWAY UD Oliveirense
0.42 xG 1.01
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
307 Passes 368
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria squeezed past UD Oliveirense 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Uniao De Leiria as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 45% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 55%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.42 to 1.01 — on chances, UD Oliveirense could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs UD Oliveirense?

Uniao De Leiria 1-0 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 08/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 42%, draw 30%, UD Oliveirense 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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