Udinese 1-2 Inter — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 8 Apr 2024

Udinese
1-2 HT 1-0
Inter
📅08/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Udinese vs Inter Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
30%
4.19
Away
49%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
11.5
1/2
8%
23.15
1/X
8%
19.55
X/1
6%
14.15
X/2
10%
3.52
X/X
12%
6.17
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.73
2/X
9%
18.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Inter win — 49%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
14%
+7.9pp
30%
Draw
20%
+9.3pp
49%
Away Win
66%
-17.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Udinese v Inter — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter EU Bookmakers 70%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.01/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.15/0.92
+13% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +21%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
275 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 446 · 83%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
15.2 Crosses 23.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Udinese vs Inter Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Inter
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.97 xG 2.55
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
298 Passes 474
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Inter Inter 4-0 HT 3-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
18.02.2023 Inter Inter 3-1 HT 1-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
18.09.2022 Udinese Udinese 3-1 HT 1-1 Inter Inter İTA
01.05.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-2 HT 0-2 Inter Inter İTA
31.10.2021 Inter Inter 2-0 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
23.05.2021 Inter Inter 5-1 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA

Udinese 1-2 Inter — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
1-2
AWAY Inter
0.06 xG 3.31
23% Ball Possession 77%
3 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 8
128 Passes 628
60% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 38
5 Crosses 37
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Inter
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter nicked a narrow win over Udinese 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Inter as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Udinese had 23% of the ball to Inter's 77%, shots finished 3-23, expected goals 0.06 to 3.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Inter's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Udinese and 2.83 for Inter.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Inter?

Udinese 1-2 Inter in the Italy - Serie A on 08/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Inter?

Before kick-off our model rated an Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Udinese 22%, draw 30%, Inter 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Inter) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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