Auxerre 2-0 Troyes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 8 Apr 2024

Auxerre
2-0 HT 0-0
Troyes
📅08/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Auxerre vs Troyes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.47
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.73
No
59%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.79
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
9%
7.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.79 — our 28% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.77
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.8
X/1
14%
3.78
X/2
6%
13.25
X/X
8%
6.65
2/1
8%
20.8
2/2
8%
9.73
2/X
7%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
64%
-4.8pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.6pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
54%
-13.1pp
59%
BTTS No
46%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auxerre v Troyes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Troyes EU Bookmakers 19%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +5%
1.46/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.64
+3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +15%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
442 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
26.6 Crosses 12.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.6

Auxerre vs Troyes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Troyes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.52 xG 1.38
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 Passes 409
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Troyes Troyes 1-2 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
01.04.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR1
04.11.2022 Troyes Troyes 1-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
23.07.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes HAZ
30.01.2021 Troyes Troyes 3-1 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
19.01.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FRK

Auxerre 2-0 Troyes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
2-0
AWAY Troyes
2.08 xG 0.46
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 3
476 Passes 303
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Troyes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre beat Troyes 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Auxerre as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Auxerre had 60% of the ball to Troyes's 40%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 2.08 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auxerre had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Auxerre and 0.83 for Troyes.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Troyes?

Auxerre 2-0 Troyes in the France - Ligue 2 on 08/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Troyes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 59%, draw 22%, Troyes 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auxerre), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Auxerre) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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