Atletico San Luis 2-3 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 8 Apr 2024

Atletico San Luis
2-3 HT 2-2
FC Juarez
📅08/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 25% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-3.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico San Luis v FC Juarez — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -24%
1.60/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.33
+47% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
321 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 77%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.4 Crosses 19.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
1W-1D-4L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.89 xG 1.46
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 Passes 273
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.10.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-2 HT 2-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
14.04.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
04.08.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
21.01.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
22.09.2021 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
10.04.2021 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK

Atletico San Luis 2-3 FC Juarez — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
2-3
AWAY FC Juarez
0.56 xG 0.97
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
365 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez edged past Atletico San Luis 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico San Luis at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 55% of the ball to FC Juarez's 45%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.56 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.33 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez?

Atletico San Luis 2-3 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 08/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico San Luis win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 49%, draw 25%, FC Juarez 26%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico San Luis)
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