Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 8 Apr 2024

Zaglebie Lubin
1-2 HT 1-1
Gornik Zabrze
📅08/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
36%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.63
6+ Goals
11%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 31% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.87
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.85
X/1
11%
4.67
X/2
12%
7.05
X/X
13%
4.47
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
18%
5.15
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
46%
-11.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
36%
Away Win
27%
+9.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.9pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zaglebie Lubin v Gornik Zabrze — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.39/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.39
-2% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.0 Crosses 17.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.57 xG 1.71
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
312 Passes 356
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.10.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-2 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
14.04.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
01.10.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-3 HT 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
22.04.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-4 HT 1-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
30.10.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-0 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
14.03.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL

Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Gornik Zabrze — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1-2
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
0.81 xG 1.18
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
382 Passes 409
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze squeezed past Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Gornik Zabrze made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 50% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 50%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 0.81 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.67 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 08/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 35%, draw 29%, Gornik Zabrze 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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