Elche 1-2 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 8 Nov 2024

📅08/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.2
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.67
6+ Goals
9%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 32% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.83
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
18%
4.54
X/2
6%
7.01
X/X
11%
4.55
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
13%
5.2
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elche EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.58/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.20
-11% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
26.4 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elche
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Almeria
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.69 xG 1.46
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
314 Passes 270
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
22.08.2022 Elche Elche 1-1 HT 1-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
06.01.2022 Almeria Almeria 1-2 HT 1-0 Elche Elche İSPK
26.01.2020 Almeria Almeria 0-2 HT 0-0 Elche Elche İS2
16.11.2019 Elche Elche 1-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
12.05.2019 Almeria Almeria 5-3 HT 3-2 Elche Elche İS2
22.12.2018 Elche Elche 2-2 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elche
1-2
AWAY Almeria
1.54 xG 3.01
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
418 Passes 299
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Elche vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria squeezed past Elche 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Elche at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Elche had 58% of the ball to Almeria's 42%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.54 to 3.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Almeria's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elche had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Elche and 1.67 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Elche vs Almeria?

Elche 1-2 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 08/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elche vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elche win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Elche 47%, draw 27%, Almeria 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Elche) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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