Verl 1-0 Hansa Rostock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 8 Nov 2024

📅08/11/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.95
Over
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.54
2-3
43%
1.8
4-5
22%
3.38
6+
10%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.54 — our 25% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.4
1/2
9%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
14%
5.28
X/2
8%
5.89
X/X
10%
4.77
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
13%
3.96
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+5.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Verl EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Hansa Rostock EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +4%
1.62/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.34
+7% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
12.4 Crosses 24.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Verl
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Hansa Rostock
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
05.02.2021 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock 3-2 HT 0-2 Verl Verl AL3
10.10.2020 Verl Verl 2-3 HT 1-3 Hansa Rostock Hansa Rostock AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Verl
1-0
AWAY Hansa Rostock
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
486 Passes 287
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
12 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Verl vs Hansa Rostock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Verl nicked a narrow win over Hansa Rostock 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Verl as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Verl had 59% of the ball to Hansa Rostock's 41%, shots finished 15-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Hansa Rostock led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Verl and 3.00 for Hansa Rostock.

What was the final score of Verl vs Hansa Rostock?

Verl 1-0 Hansa Rostock in the Germany - 3rd Division on 08/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Verl vs Hansa Rostock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Verl 45%, draw 24%, Hansa Rostock 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Verl), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Verl) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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