Tondela 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 8 Nov 2025

Tondela
0-1 HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅08/11/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Tondela vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.48
6+ Goals
8%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.37
1/2
12%
32.0
1/X
11%
14.2
X/1
12%
5.84
X/2
14%
5.25
X/X
10%
4.07
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
12%
3.72
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.0pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tondela v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 40%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -14%
1.37/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.32
+8% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
18.5 Crosses 20.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8

Tondela vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.91 xG 2.28
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 382
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.09.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela PORLC
22.07.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 Tondela Tondela HAZ
24.04.2022 Tondela Tondela 1-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
11.12.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 5-2 HT 2-2 Tondela Tondela POR
04.04.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 HT 1-1 Tondela Tondela POR
28.11.2020 Tondela Tondela 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Tondela 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
0-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.46 xG 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
305 Passes 325
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Tondela 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Vitoria Guimaraes made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Tondela had 50% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 50%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.46 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tondela and 1.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Tondela 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tondela 35%, draw 27%, Vitoria Guimaraes 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5
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