Notts County 1-3 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 9 Feb 2024

Notts County
1-3 HT 1-2
Gillingham
📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Notts County vs Gillingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.75
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
19%
4.7
X/2
11%
6.94
X/X
9%
5.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.3
2/2
14%
4.75
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.3 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Gillingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.33/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/0.94
+0% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
310 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 68%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
23.1 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Notts County vs Gillingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gillingham
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 1.51
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
583 Passes 240
90% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 23
29 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-2 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
03.05.2015 Gillingham Gillingham 3-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN1
04.10.2014 Notts County Notts County 1-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
07.12.2013 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
22.10.2013 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İN1
17.03.2009 Notts County Notts County 0-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2

Notts County 1-3 Gillingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
1-3
AWAY Gillingham
0.75 xG 1.28
72% Ball Possession 28%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
631 Passes 192
93% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 25
33 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham beat Notts County 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Notts County at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Notts County had 72% of the ball to Gillingham's 28%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.75 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Notts County and 1.33 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Gillingham?

Notts County 1-3 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Notts County 44%, draw 24%, Gillingham 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Notts County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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