Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 Feb 2024

Borussia Dortmund
3-0 HT 2-0
Freiburg
📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.59
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.7
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
29%
2.58
6+ Goals
14%
5.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.77
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.3
X/1
19%
3.88
X/2
6%
12.25
X/X
10%
7.19
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.0
2/2
7%
8.31
2/X
5%
16.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.0 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
63%
-2.5pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.6pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.4pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
2.24/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.87
+34% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
428 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 75%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
16.7 Crosses 13.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Freiburg
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.80 xG 0.81
67% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
535 Passes 222
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
35 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-4 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
04.02.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
12.08.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-3 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
14.01.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-1 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
21.08.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
06.02.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1

Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3-0
AWAY Freiburg
1.93 xG 0.26
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
598 Passes 252
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
37 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund swept aside Freiburg 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 66% of the ball to Freiburg's 34%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.93 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.50 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg?

Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 60%, draw 21%, Freiburg 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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