Adelaide United 3-3 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 9 Feb 2024

Adelaide United
3-3 HT 2-1
Perth Glory
📅09/02/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United vs Perth Glory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.66
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
29%
2.98
Over 2.5
71%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.39
No
36%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
7.57
2-3 Goals
33%
2.24
4-5 Goals
36%
2.38
6+ Goals
16%
4.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.01
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
13%
4.49
X/2
11%
10.1
X/X
9%
7.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
17.9
2/2
8%
6.03
2/X
4%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.9 — our 15% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
56%
-1.4pp
18%
Draw
21%
-3.1pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.5pp
29%
Under 2.5
30%
-0.5pp
71%
Over 2.5
70%
+0.5pp
64%
BTTS Yes
68%
-3.4pp
36%
BTTS No
32%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Perth Glory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
2.36/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.58
-6% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
37.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
26.6 Crosses 19.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Adelaide United vs Perth Glory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Perth Glory
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.01 xG 0.87
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
372 Passes 355
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.04.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 4-4 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
02.01.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-0 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
30.10.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
24.04.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-0 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
06.03.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 0-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
20.11.2021 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-1 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Adelaide United 3-3 Perth Glory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
3-3
AWAY Perth Glory
3.28 xG 2.36
64% Ball Possession 36%
22 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 3
466 Passes 206
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
36 Box Touches 22
35 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United and Perth Glory shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Adelaide United at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (71%), both teams to score (64%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United had 64% of the ball to Perth Glory's 36%, shots finished 22-14, expected goals 3.28 to 2.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Adelaide United and 1.17 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Perth Glory?

Adelaide United 3-3 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 55%, draw 18%, Perth Glory 27%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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