Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 9 Feb 2024

Salzburg
1-1 HT 1-0
Sturm Graz
📅09/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.1
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
8%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 28% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.61
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
20%
4.28
X/2
8%
7.49
X/X
12%
4.51
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
13%
5.72
2/X
6%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
48%
+2.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Salzburg v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.77/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.50
+4% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
18.5 Crosses 14.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.34 xG 0.79
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
292 Passes 204
69% Pass Accuracy 61%
21 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
21.05.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
23.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
03.02.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
22.10.2022 Salzburg Salzburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
30.07.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 1-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU

Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
1-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
2.24 xG 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
277 Passes 238
72% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg and Sturm Graz shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Salzburg had 51% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 49%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.24 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Salzburg and 1.00 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 50%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Salzburg), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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