Marsilya 1-1 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.45
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.9
Over
50%
1.85
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.07
No Pick
56%
1.67
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.27
2-3
43%
1.76
4-5
22%
3.53
6+
9%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.27 — our 26% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.77
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
18.75
X/1
18%
3.41
X/2
9%
13.45
X/X
13%
5.6
2/1
13%
24.15
2/2
6%
11.5
2/X
7%
19.75
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Marsilya The Market 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz The Market 17%
Weak Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
Bad Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
1.98 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 0.89
0.97 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.66
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Average Defensevs comparable teams Strong
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
418 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 72%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
19.8 Crosses 15.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Metz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 1.01
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
473 Passes 245
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2023 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
13.02.2022 Metz Metz 1-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
07.11.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
23.05.2021 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
26.09.2020 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
14.12.2019 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
1-1
AWAY Metz
1.78 xG 0.84
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
494 Passes 218
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Marsilya vs Metz
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

a 1-1 draw left Marsilya and Metz with a point apiece. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Marsilya at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The market had leaned harder still (1.45, ~69%); nobody's numbers saw this one coming. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, possession split 66% to 34% in Marsilya's favour, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.78 to 0.84.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Marsilya against 1.00 for Metz.

Marsilya vs Metz Result & Final Score

Marsilya 1-1 Metz in the France - Ligue 1 on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Marsilya vs Metz Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 55%, draw 26%, Metz 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ BTTS No
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