UD Oliveirense 1-2 Torreense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 9 Feb 2024

📅09/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
35%
3.11
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.07
6+ Goals
8%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 32% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
18%
X/X
19%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.6pp
35%
Draw
29%
+5.7pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-4.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Torreense EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.58/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.18
+25% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
284 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.1 Crosses 18.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Torreense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.45 xG 1.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
366 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.09.2023 Torreense Torreense 3-1 HT 2-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
15.05.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 3-1 HT 0-0 Torreense Torreense POR2
07.01.2023 Torreense Torreense 1-1 HT 0-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
1-2
AWAY Torreense
1.37 xG 0.80
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
292 Passes 181
73% Pass Accuracy 62%
24 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Torreense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Torreense edged past UD Oliveirense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 35% / 33%) promised a tight game; Torreense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 59% of the ball to Torreense's 41%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.37 to 0.80 — on chances, UD Oliveirense could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.67 for Torreense.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Torreense?

UD Oliveirense 1-2 Torreense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Torreense?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 33%, draw 35%, Torreense 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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