Adana Demirspor 1-3 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 9 Feb 2024

Adana Demirspor
1-3 HT 0-2
Kasımpaşa
📅09/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.65
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.81
6+ Goals
13%
7.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.9
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
20%
5.1
X/2
10%
6.64
X/X
11%
5.38
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.45
2/2
17%
4.19
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.1pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adana Demirspor v Kasımpaşa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adana Demirspor EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.45/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.61
-12% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
15.7 Crosses 19.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adana Demirspor
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.60 xG 1.65
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
353 Passes 322
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-1 HT 1-0 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor TSL
15.04.2023 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor 5-0 HT 3-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
15.10.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-4 HT 0-2 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor TSL
17.04.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 4-0 HT 2-0 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor TSL
26.11.2021 Adana Demirspor Adana Demirspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL

Adana Demirspor 1-3 Kasımpaşa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adana Demirspor
1-3
AWAY Kasımpaşa
1.73 xG 1.84
58% Ball Possession 42%
23 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
344 Passes 214
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 14
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa saw off Adana Demirspor 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Adana Demirspor at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Adana Demirspor had 58% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 42%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 1.73 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.40 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?

Adana Demirspor 1-3 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 09/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adana Demirspor vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adana Demirspor win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Adana Demirspor 44%, draw 23%, Kasımpaşa 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adana Demirspor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adana Demirspor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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