09/03/2024
·
17:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
3-1
Paradiso vs Lugano II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
62%
21%
Draw
22%
22%
Away Win
16%
44%
Under 2.5
49%
56%
Over 2.5
51%
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
45%
BTTS No
53%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Paradiso v Lugano II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Paradiso
EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY
Lugano II
EU Bookmakers 19%
-31% /
-31%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-27% /
-27%
1.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.33/2.98
-54%
/
+30%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-76%
/
-30%
55%
Ball Possession
45%
18
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
5
7
Corners
4
347 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
275 · 74%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
Paradiso vs Lugano II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Paradiso
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Lugano II
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
46%
Ball Possession
54%
13
Total Shots
16
4
Shots on Target
8
1
Corners
5
3
Yellow Cards
1
The Meetings
02.09.2023
Lugano II
2-1
HT 0-1
Paradiso
İSV1Y
2-1
HT 0-1
Paradiso
İSV1Y
POST-MATCH
Paradiso vs Lugano II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Paradiso edged past Lugano II 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Paradiso as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Paradiso vs Lugano II?
Paradiso 1-0 Lugano II in the Switzerland - 1st Division Yükselme on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Paradiso vs Lugano II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Paradiso win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Paradiso 57%, draw 21%, Lugano II 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paradiso) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Paradiso)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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İSV1Y
More Switzerland - 1st Division Yükselme
9 Mar 2024