Aquidauanense 3-2 Corumbaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Sul-Matogrossense, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
37%
2.88
Away
22%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
Over
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
43%
4-5
19%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
41%
+0.6pp
37%
Draw
32%
+5.1pp
22%
Away Win
28%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aquidauanense The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Corumbaense The Market 31%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
1.53/2.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.00
+27% / -68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -60%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Aquidauanense vs Corumbaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aquidauanense squeezed past Corumbaense 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (42% / 37% / 22%) promised a tight game; Aquidauanense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Aquidauanense vs Corumbaense?

Aquidauanense 3-2 Corumbaense in the Brazil - Sul-Matogrossense on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aquidauanense vs Corumbaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aquidauanense win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aquidauanense 42%, draw 37%, Corumbaense 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aquidauanense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aquidauanense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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