09/03/2024
·
16:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
3-0
2nd Score
4-0
Moso Sugar vs Bumamuru Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
Over 2.5
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
53%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
8%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
20%
Draw
22%
25%
Away Win
13%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Moso Sugar v Bumamuru — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Moso Sugar
EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY
Bumamuru
EU Bookmakers 16%
-30% /
-30%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-100%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
55%
Ball Possession
45%
16
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
4
402 · 82%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
255 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Moso Sugar vs Bumamuru
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Moso Sugar squeezed past Bumamuru 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Moso Sugar as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
What was the final score of Moso Sugar vs Bumamuru?
Moso Sugar 1-0 Bumamuru in the Burundi - League A on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Moso Sugar vs Bumamuru?
Before kick-off our model rated a Moso Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Moso Sugar 55%, draw 20%, Bumamuru 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moso Sugar), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Moso Sugar)
✗ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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BUR
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