Beijing Guoan 1-2 Shenzhen FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 9 Apr 2024

Beijing Guoan
1-2 HT 0-1
Shenzhen FC
📅09/04/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League – 2024

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.75
Over 2.5
53%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
18.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.01 — our 26% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
15%
3.95
X/2
12%
8.13
X/X
8%
4.64
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
11%
6.61
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.8
Value flag · 2/X at 15.8 — our 10% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
53%
-6.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
47%
+6.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.8pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Beijing Guoan v Shenzhen FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Shenzhen FC EU Bookmakers 26%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+8% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 73%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.6 Crosses –
1.6 Yellow Cards –

Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beijing Guoan
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Shenzhen FC
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.00 xG 0.84
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
388 Passes 314
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-3 HT 0-2 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİNSL
08.07.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 5-0 HT 2-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİNSL
11.07.2022 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
21.06.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 4-1 HT 1-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
04.01.2022 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
22.12.2021 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 2-2 HT 1-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN

Beijing Guoan 1-2 Shenzhen FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beijing Guoan
1-2
AWAY Shenzhen FC
1.67 xG 1.11
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
451 Passes 267
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 8
30 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shenzhen FC squeezed past Beijing Guoan 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Beijing Guoan at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Beijing Guoan had 61% of the ball to Shenzhen FC's 39%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.67 to 1.11 — on chances, Beijing Guoan could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Beijing Guoan had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.83 for Shenzhen FC.

What was the final score of Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen FC?

Beijing Guoan 1-2 Shenzhen FC in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beijing Guoan win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Beijing Guoan 47%, draw 25%, Shenzhen FC 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Beijing Guoan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Beijing Guoan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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