Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 9 Apr 2024

Arsenal
2-2 HT 1-2
Bayern Münih
📅09/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Champions League – 2023/2024

Arsenal vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.0
Over
52%
1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.68
2-3
34%
1.82
4-5
29%
3.28
6+
11%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.12
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.2
X/1
17%
3.91
X/2
6%
9.78
X/X
12%
5.44
2/1 ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
12%
7.49
2/X
8%
15.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Arsenal v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih The Market 23%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
3.15/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.43/2.23
+70% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / -29%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
444 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
– Crosses 18.6
– Yellow Cards 1.8

Arsenal vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
4.07 xG 1.64
36% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 8
304 Passes 597
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
22 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.07.2019 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih HAZ
19.07.2017 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal HAZ
07.03.2017 Arsenal Arsenal 1-5 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih ŞMP
15.02.2017 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
04.11.2015 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-1 HT 3-0 Arsenal Arsenal ŞMP
20.10.2015 Arsenal Arsenal 2-0 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih ŞMP

Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-2
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.00 xG 1.92
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
466 Passes 300
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Arsenal vs Bayern Münih
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Arsenal and Bayern Münih shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The market had leaned harder still (1.64, ~61%); nobody's numbers saw this one coming.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 52% for over 2.5, 54% on both teams scoring.

By the numbers, Arsenal had 59% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 41%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.00 to 1.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Arsenal and 2.83 for Bayern Münih.

Arsenal vs Bayern Münih Result & Final Score

Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Münih in the Champions League on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Arsenal vs Bayern Münih Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 51%, draw 25%, Bayern Münih 24%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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