Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 FK Dainava Alytus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 9 Apr 2024

Hegelmann Litauen
0-1 HT 0-0
FK Dainava Alytus
📅09/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Lithuania - 1st Division – 2024

Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
59%
-12.0pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.2pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+6.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hegelmann Litauen v FK Dainava Alytus — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hegelmann Litauen EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.02/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/0.76
+13% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +126%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.08.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 1-2 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
24.06.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LITA
23.04.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 1-0 HT 0-0 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
04.03.2023 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 3-0 HT 1-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
02.10.2021 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 1-1 HT 1-1 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen LIT1
07.08.2021 Hegelmann Litauen Hegelmann Litauen 1-1 HT 0-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1

Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 FK Dainava Alytus — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hegelmann Litauen
0-1
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Dainava Alytus squeezed past Hegelmann Litauen 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hegelmann Litauen at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hegelmann Litauen had 66% of the ball to FK Dainava Alytus's 34%, shots finished 12-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hegelmann Litauen had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hegelmann Litauen and 0.67 for FK Dainava Alytus.

What was the final score of Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Hegelmann Litauen 0-1 FK Dainava Alytus in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 09/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hegelmann Litauen vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hegelmann Litauen win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hegelmann Litauen 47%, draw 29%, FK Dainava Alytus 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hegelmann Litauen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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