PSG 3-1 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.87
6+ Goals
14%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.91
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.55
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
7%
11.55
X/X
9%
6.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.5
2/2
12%
8.89
2/X
7%
17.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.5 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.8pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 21%
-12% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-22% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
472 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 79%
36.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.3 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
3-1
AWAY Aston Villa
1.95 xG 0.86
75% Ball Possession 25%
29 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
795 Passes 205
95% Pass Accuracy 76%
58 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PSG vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG saw off Aston Villa 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, PSG had 75% of the ball to Aston Villa's 25%, shots finished 29-7, expected goals 1.95 to 0.86.

What was the final score of PSG vs Aston Villa?

PSG 3-1 Aston Villa in the Champions League on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split PSG 52%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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